Can the international gold price break the ＂ceiling＂ of $900 and reach $1,000？
Will the price of gold finally break through the "sky-high price" of $1,000 per ounce? (data picture)
Xinhua Online Haihai, January 19 (Reporter Lu Wenjun, Huang Tingjun) On the first trading day in 2008, the international gold price hit a record high, and since then, it has been out of control and has repeatedly set a new record, and the domestic gold price has also had a high fever and reached a new high. After the international gold price successfully stood at the $900 mark per ounce on the 14th, the eyes of global investors turned to the next suspense: will the gold price eventually break through the "sky-high price" of $1,000 per ounce, as predicted by many researchers?
The international gold price broke the ceiling of $900 per ounce.
Since 2007, the international gold price has changed from "slow cow" to "fast cow", and it is even more bullish in 2008. In 2007, it rose by 31%, and in just a dozen trading days in 2008, the increase has exceeded 9%.
The trend of gold in the past week is like a rainbow, breaking through the $900 mark in one fell swoop-
On the 8th, the price of crude oil rose by nearly $2, and gold surged sharply under the influence of investors and nervous geopolitics. the New York Mercantile Exchange February gold futures closed at $880.30 per ounce, which exceeded the historical record of $875 per ounce set on January 21st, 1980.
On the 10th, influenced by the speeches of European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, the US dollar fell sharply, and the US dollar suffered heavy losses. Gold gained momentum to refresh its high point. Comex February gold futures closed at $893.60 an ounce.
On the 11th, gold briefly broke through $900/oz, and the expectation of interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve made investors focus on gold with hedging function out of inflation worries. Comex February gold settled at $897.70 an ounce.
On the 14th, the international gold price once again reached an all-time high, with the spot gold hitting an intraday high of $914.2 per ounce. The data of that day showed that the US trade deficit expanded to the highest level in 14 months, which kept the US dollar under pressure and once fell to a seven-week low. Comex February gold closed at $903.40 an ounce.
Analysts pointed out that at present, the unilateral upward trend of international gold price is obvious, and the rising rhythm and amplitude are obviously increased. After the important psychological barrier of 900 US dollars/ounce is effectively broken, with this "ceiling" being broken, the future rising space of gold will suddenly become clear.
The depreciation of the US dollar is too fast, and it is not out of reach for the gold price to "break thousands".
With the sound of gold "rising", breaking through the historical high in 1980 and the threshold of 900 US dollars/ounce is like a bamboo. Many analysts at home and abroad have predicted that the next stop of the "golden age" will be directed at $1,000 per ounce.
"One or two years ago, $1,000 an ounce might have been considered sky-high, but now many people believe that this target will be achieved and will be achieved soon." Li Qi, a gold industry insider, said this. He believes that the current rise in gold is a general trend. As long as there is no major negative interest, there is a high probability of rushing to $1,000 per ounce.
Shi Weiping, a researcher at orient securities Research Institute, believes that the real leading trend of gold price increase is not only the continuous depreciation of the US dollar, but also the expectation of global inflation and the expectation of rising crude oil prices. These reasons lead to the prominent function of gold as a "hard currency". Under the collective pursuit of investors, $1,000 per ounce is not nonsense.
"The rise of gold has become an obvious trend in the international financial field, and even the correction of oil prices has no obvious impact on it, and there are few factors supporting the fall of gold at present." Yang Hongjie, an analyst at Haitong Securities Research Institute, said.
Yang Hongjie pointed out that what really makes gold "popular" in the world is actually the transformation of global economic structure, frequent geopolitical and military crises, the possibility of economic recession in the United States, the challenge to the status of US dollar reserve currency, and the reduction of US dollar reserves and the increase of demand for gold reserves by central banks. The more in the transition period of the global economic structure, the more it shows the value-preserving function of gold as a monetary attribute, and the "hard currency" force has led to the high fever of gold prices.
"But even if gold rises to $1,000 an ounce, it doesn’t fully explain the problem. If gold is priced in pounds and euros, there may be no big increase, but the dollar has depreciated too fast." Yang Hongjie said so.
Investment is risky, and it is too high to be cold.
Even though the upward trend of gold will continue, for ordinary investors, gold products that are already at a high level, although there is still a lot of investment space, also have huge investment risks.
"It goes up quickly and falls sharply." Li Qi, an insider, analyzed the characteristics of this special variety of gold. He believes that many reasons, such as small plates, hot market, the entry of international hot money and the demand for safe haven of capital, have led to a sharp rise in the current international gold price.
For example, Li Qi said that gold trading is a small market in the world. If a small part of global foreign exchange transactions enter the gold market, the price of gold can be pushed up by tens of dollars in an instant. Great fluctuation also means great risk, and the investment value of the gold market, which is currently at a high level, has been reduced.
The risk of the gold futures market is self-evident. When the gold price sword refers to $1,000 per ounce, more and more investors may flood in, and profit-taking or even short-selling may trap a large number of new investors. Yang Hongjie reminded that the derivatives market fluctuates greatly, and ordinary investors are inexperienced. Moreover, as gold is an investment product, investors must study complex international financial issues, instead of just studying supply and demand issues like investing in copper.
Li Qi added that from the operational point of view, China’s gold futures and Comex futures are closely linked, and investors must pay attention to the risk of staying in the warehouse overnight by adopting the market mechanism of various industries.
For spot gold investment, there is also cost risk. "Even though the price of gold may rise to $1,000 per ounce, the current price is still high. For investing in spot gold, the cost problem is inevitable, and we must consider who will eventually fall on the’ pass the parcel’." Yang Hongjie reminded.
Shi Weiping, a researcher in orient securities, believes that even if investing in gold is used as a hedging tool, it is based on the expectation of the future decline of the US dollar and the increase of inflationary pressure, then there may be a problem that investment is out of cost, and the risk will naturally increase.
As an insider, Li Qi suggested that ordinary investors should not regard gold as an important investment product, but as a good allocation product. Controlling the investment ratio and acting according to one’s ability is conducive to effectively allocating assets and resisting price risks. "If the price of gold is $400, you can even allocate 50%, but at present, if you want to offset $1,000, you can only allocate 10%." Li Qi gave such investment advice.
Editor: Zhou Zhongxiao